Tuesday, October 4, 2016

Knock, knock, knockin' on Heaven's Door

As we have been saying for days now, "risk in the market" has gone up from a wave counting view point. The "risk of invalidation is high". The best hope for the upward diagonal A wave appeared to be on Monday, but the market wasn't up to the task. As far as we can tell, too much time has now passed for the third wave minute iii (circle iii) to form in a contracting manner in time. While not an absolute requirement it would have been nice to see it form that way. There are still more ways it could form in terms of price, but price has again started to pierce the daily trend line to the down side. If momentum picks up, there could be a slide.

From my vantage point in terms of the longer run count, it is time to equally consider than the triangle formed over the last few weeks of trading 'may' be the minor B wave to the upside, following minor A down, of move that will finish with a C wave down. In other words, Intermediate (2) could develop a deeper retracement.

The are no clear options. Odds are now about 40:60 upside versus downside. An upside surprise could happen, but we don't see clear evidence of it yet. From a wave-counting perspective, it seems best to let the market call the tune.

1 comment:

  1. Thanks Joe.I You've written previously about a possibility of a 5th wave failure and the struggle that the market has in getting above the center line in the long term count. There is alot of resistance and uncertainty on the upside with the upcoming election and the talk of a rate increase. So, perhaps,as we knock on heaven's door will it be slammed in our face? With this in mind and according to your analysis, what are the possibilities that the market has already topped? It's what I'm thinking when I look at the chart patterns (especially the Fibonacci arc) but would appreciate your thoughts. THANKS AGAIN!