Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Update on Potential Minor wave A of Intermediate (3) - Part 2

Please refer to the prior post if you have not read it. I'll keep this brief. Today, in real time chat I was able to count five waves up to minuet (a) wave of minute iii (circle iii) of of Minor A of Intermediate (3), followed by a three-wave minuet (b) wave down of minute iii (circle iii), up; followed by an additional five waves up.

Here is what the count looks like on the DOW at this point in time.

Figure 1 - Add (a) and (b) of minute iii of Intermediate A in the Dow Jones Industrial Average

Now, since we have counted five waves up to (a), we are able to raise our invalidation point on this wave iii (circle iii). That is because a downward wave should not travel below (b). We should expect a full "five-waves up" from (b), and if that does not occur, something is wrong with the count. Again, see if other Elliott analysts provide you with such clear and unmistakable invalidation points. If not, they are not counting waves correctly.

For those that are interested, below is what the "real time" chart looked like today at the end of live chat. Also, I did find one way to revise yesterday's waves to make them more proportional. And it is shown below, also. It is impulse 'a', then 'b', then diagonal 'c' down to minute ii (circle ii) on the above chart. But it does not affect the position of any larger labels, nor of any of the waves today.

Figure 2 - Today's "Real Time" Wave Count in the SP500 30-Minnute Chart

In the chart above, since yesterday there are five non-overlapping waves, up, to 'a', followed by three waves down to 'b', followed by an Expanding Leading Diagonal wave i that I was able to count live wave-for-wave on the five-minute chart, followed by wave iii that occurred on Chair Yellen's comments today.

We now have 'five waves up' from b on the way to (iii), or circle iii in Figure 1. Once again, we do not know how this wave will progress for sure. It is possible that blue wave v can exceed the high of (i) all by itself. That is because wave blue iii is longer than wave blue i. So, wave v could be any length. Alternatively, this could be a five-wave sequence for a larger -i of c, with a -ii down to follow. And, this is, again what raises the risk in the market at this point in time.

P.S. I'm sorry for a little bit of the label confusion between the two charts. It is a limitation of the real time software used. I hope you can follow it. They are exactly equivalent, and if you have any questions refer to the Dow chart, in Figure 1, above.



  1. Thanks very much for the update. You mention a 'live chat' session. Please can you tell me how I might participate in that.

    Also I would like to understand what wave levels you place on the 2000 top and the subsequent down/up/down waves to 2009.



    1. Send me an email at and I'll forward you the live chat details. 2000 = Cycle 3; 2009 = Cycle 4, 2016 = Primary 5 and Cycle 5.

    2. Many thanks for your prompt responses. Please look out for my email. It's from

      Very much appreciated.

  2. Thanks Joe for your detailed updates. Always appreciated.