Friday, August 12, 2016

Care Needed

If you don't sweat the small stuff, there is a potential diagonal in the ES 2-hr futures which roughly squares with a cash count on the SP500 of a fifth wave up in this series. First, here is the chart.

'Potential' Diagonal is the ES 120-Minute Futures
Next, such a diagonal is adhering to it's trend lines well. Third, any new higher high in the futures, whether or not a similar one is made in cash, could end this wave. Fourth, however, the diagonal 'must' form properly in that wave (v) must be shorter than wave (iii). Fifth, and last, there would need to be a complete retrace, below 2144, to call this diagonal an "ending" diagonal, otherwise, it 'could' be leading.

But lots of divergences are building -- so at least exercise care until we know if (v) is shorter than (iii) or not.

12 comments:

  1. caldaro now says B wave or P5 or third wave of new bull market!
    He should at least apologize to TJ for saying P5 was impossible for the whole of the last year.

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  2. Joe,
    Please excuse my ignorance and stupidity when asking this question. If indeed, this turns out to be an ending diagonal of this current wave, and all the criteria is met as mentioned in your post, would that mean the completion of intermediate wave 1 of Primary 5? Or, if this turns out to be a leading diagonal, would the completion of the c wave up also be the completion of intermediate wave 1 of Primary 5? (Or, am I just totally confused?--which is most likely.) Thanks!
    rose

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    1. According to The Eight Fold Path method of counting an impulse, we are at 125 daily candles on the chart. Then, a diagonal 5 would either be of a third wave - Intermediate or Minor degree - or of C of Intermediate (1). Wish I could be more certain at this time, but P5 = P1 occurs at 2363. Eventual overlaps will help sort out the count, as will a retrace of the daily EWO towards or below zero - which hasn't happened yet on the daily chart. Also, with the $NYAD having made a new ATH this week, it's hard to get too negative yet.

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    2. Thanks Joe! I've been following that third wave count as a possibility. Thanks for your response and keeping all of us abreast of that elusive question I always ask myself....where are we? : )
      rose

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  3. Thanks Joe for you education! Interesting see what now happens. Could maybe have a small ihs left to reach the 2200 handle and then.... Interesting... :) Have a nice weekend

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  4. Hi Joe,

    Thanks a lot for sharing us your thoughts about the market, as usual they are great.

    I read every your post and enjoy them a lot.

    Why don't you come back to OEW Tony site to post them, many people there miss you a lot.

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  5. TJ if you go back you can draw a diagonal from 2060/70ish...the move from 1990 could be ending...this could be the third wave of P5

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  6. Your posts are instructive and informative and you are a lover of precision; therefore I hope you won't mind if I, a former teacher of English grammar, point out a small error you sometimes make that distracts me from focus on your geometric rigor: the old apostrophe error: "adhering to it's trend" in which 'its' should not have an apostrophe as it is not a verb construction but an adjective. And while I am at it, your frequent habit of using single or double quotation marks to draw more attention to something that might be contention? or uncertainty? to me becomes overdone...... just pointing these small things out which are not germane to your main purpose of giving thoroughly useful and thoughtful commentary........ please disregard if you find this distracting.

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    Replies
    1. I'll try to improve. Thanks for your comments.

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