Friday, July 15, 2016

Half-Hourly Chart - 7/15/2016

Here's the continuation of the half-hourly chart in the previous post. It is 'possible' to see the fourth wave as a very large "running triangle" which was kicked-off by the Bank of England announcement of, well, "nothing", or "maybe something in August". This chart is the same as the NinjaTrader chart below, just done in MotiveWave, and with a slightly different style of letters and numbers for ease of reading.

Continuation of S&P500 Index Count from the July 6th Low
As posted previously, I have no issues with the triangle "walking outside" of the trend channel, because that is what triangles do, usually on lighter volume. You can note several things.

  1. The positions of waves 1 & 3 have not changed.
  2. The Elliott Wave Oscillator is again approaching the zero line indicative of fourth waves
  3. It is 'possible' for the triangle to expand once (see note below).
Note if the triangle expands once

The current triangle is quite narrow although it is symmetrical. There is a possibility that the wave marked c down, is just -a of c, and the wave marked d is just -b of c. Then, there would be a -c of c lower, possibility on a gap on Monday. That would be perfectly fine with this count. There is no reason a c wave can't fill the gap made by the Bank of England b wave. If that happens, then look for a further d and e wave later in the week.

However, we want to note that if this wave is a triangle, it MUST form properly in every detail. And, if it does, it may indicate, "last wave dead ahead" in this particular wave sequence.

Regardless, we are still counting upward until we can not.

12 comments:

  1. Great work Joe. Tks and have a nice weekend.

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  2. Thanks Joe. Always appreciative of your work.
    rose

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  3. Thanks Joe. Always appreciative of your work.
    rose

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  4. Thanks, Rose. And thanks for the support!

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  5. TJ in the above how come EWO is not peaking at 3 of 3. thanks

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    1. Hello Jack. Go back and pull up and hourly chart of the SP500, and put the EWO on it. What do you see about where the EWO peaked? This should tell you something significant about the whole wave up from the Brexit low.

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    2. thanks yes i have seen that one. my question was if we are just dealing with the 5th wave here from 2070ish and if the we get the right number of bars for this move up for the 5th wave- shouldnt we get the high of EWO at 3 of 3 under 5th wave also. thanks

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    3. It's pretty close by a few bars. It's hard to quibble or expect exact perfection. Again, it's pretty close. Keep in mind there are a couple of oddities in the wave such as wave 2 being a 'flat' and not a sharp. That is not typical. Also, we see the wave has "walked well out of the channel". Even though I expected exactly that, it still shows what poor momentum the wave has, and that is the key to the upward analysis: poor momentum. Like a fifth wave. In subsequent waves with better momentum, whether upward or downward you will likely see better conformance.

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  6. TJ any intraday charts for S&P? got use to seeing them on tony c site

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    1. There is a new intraday chart on my blog today.

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  7. Anyone want to chat and chart on the market until Caldaro gets going can come here

    http://stockfools.blogspot.ca/

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