Tuesday, July 12, 2016

Half-Hourly Chart - 7/12/2106

Here is a continuation of the half-hourly count which sees the July 6th low as the fourth wave up of this impulse - from the S&P half-hourly chart. This chart was constructed using the ES E-mini S&P futures (regular session only) but the count is identical to cash.

Half-Hourly Count E-Mini ES S&P Futures

There are three reasons for this count, and they are quite simple.
  1. Wave -iii is located at the 2.618 Fibonacci extension, or just slightly beyond it
  2. Price late in the afternoon traded down below the red line of the alligator indicator
  3. The Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO) is diverging
Together, they up the odds to about 70:30 that a four wave lower is now in progress which should retrace around 38% of wave -iii (limits 23% - 50% of wave -iii).

Since wave -ii was a clear flat, as was recognized in real time, then, wave -iv 'should' be a clear sharp (zigzag) or triangle to provide alternation. Wave -iv should try to attack the lower channel line, and it is ok, particularly if wave -iv turns out to be a triangle, for it to break the lower channel line significantly before wave -v resumes in the upward direction.

There are never any guarantees, and price would have to overlap the -b wave for the count to be considered in trouble. For the present, we are counting 'upward' until we can not.


  1. Thanks Joe! I was looking for a pullback here too. Really nice to see your chart.

  2. TJ,
    Charts and info much appreciated! Thanks for posting on your blog.

  3. Thanks for posting these frequent updates. Very much appreciated.

  4. thanks - TJ.

    Phil where are we hanging out - need to find a place to interact

  5. This comment has been removed by the author.

  6. Trader Joe

    i am sending people to HD site if they ask me

    i didnt think you wanted your blog to turn into what was going on at TC so unless you indicate that you want more discussion and interaction here we will just follow your blog and not clog............. :)

  7. I sent an email to TC and he said the comment section will return but with some changes....don't know when and what but just letting you know

    1. thanks TJ and thx John for the TC news

  8. Replies
    1. Hi Jack S -

      Yes, there is an updated post as of today.