With price now exceeding the August 10th minute wave iv (circle-iv), and the price retrace now exceeding the 78.6% level, this chart would outline the 'minimum requirement' for a Primary 5th wave according to typical truncation guidelines shown in Mastering Elliott Wave by Glenn Neely. We will further note that the NQ futures are also exceptionally near their Jul 2015 all-time highs.
We have placed a big question mark (?) on P5, because there is absolutely no price confirmation that the upward wave is over. We are 'only' saying that as a P5 wave, it has met the 'minimum' upward expectation for a truncated P5 wave. Could more upward price movement occur? Sure. But, if it doesn't, a truncation would be one of the two reasons why. More text below chart.
|Dow Jones Industrials Four Hourly Chart - Truncation Count|
Further, more upward price movement could occur! You will note that with the P5 wave even though wave 3 is shorter than wave 1, wave 5 is not yet as long as wave 3. So wave 5 could extend some. Downward price movement today, so far, is minimal, so this certainly could occur. Since further upward price movement is not ruled out, we are more favorably disposed to say that a P5 wave has indeed occurred - even at this level. And, further, it is possible that wave 3 is not properly located yet. It may be the wave that crosses the top, meaning that the wave is still sub-dividing upward. But all of that is in the future, and we must have patience until there is more clarity, with larger downward waves and clear overlaps to help confirm the wave structure.
Cheers and enjoy the chart.